What will Boris Johnson’s ‘roadmap’ for exiting lockdown look like?
Boris Johnson has vowed to set out a “roadmap” for lifting lockdown measures this afternoon, as the UK continues to make rapid progress with its vaccine rollout.
While the shape of the timeline has yet to be revealed, the Prime Minister has said he will provide dates for lifting specific measures “if we possibly can”.
The government’s “top priority” is reopening schools on 8 March, with more than 10m children expected to return to the classroom.
However, the Prime Minister last night unveiled the first cautious steps for lifting other restrictions, with a four-step plan for the next few months.
By the end of next month two households, or up to six people, will be able to meet outdoors for the first time in 2021.
The PM is expected to announce that “stay at home” orders will also be lifted from 29 March, alongside the reopening of local facilities such as tennis courts and football pitches.
It comes amid mounting pressure from senior backbenchers to provide greater clarity over ministers’ lockdown exit strategy.
The Prime Minister last week announced a new target to offer a first dose of the vaccine to all adults in the UK by 31 July.
Ministers also expect to be able to allow a significant easing of lockdown restrictions by the time all over-50s are vaccinated by mid-April.
The Prime Minister has said the nation’s largest ever vaccination programme will prove “the light at the end of the tunnel” from the pandemic, as he promised 2021 would see the return of the “Great British summer”.
Here’s what we know so far:
What will reopen first?
Johnson has repeatedly stated that the government’s number one priority is reopening schools.
The Prime Minister will announce details this afternoon about plans to return children to the classroom on 8 March. School leaders have repeatedly stated they need at least two weeks’ notice to prepare classrooms for the return of more than 10m pupils across the country.
After-school activities for children are also expected to resume on 8 March, in a welcome move for parents after months of homeschooling.
The Prime Minister has not yet stated whether the government will stagger the reopening of schools for different age groups and regions.
Professor Neil Ferguson, a scientific adviser to the government, said modelling suggests “there probably is leeway to reopen all schools” from 8 March, but warned that primary schools carried “slightly more of a risk” in causing a spike in cases.
Outdoor recreation
The Prime Minister is expected to announce a further easing of restrictions on outdoor exercise and recreation alongside the reopening of schools.
People will be allowed to meet up with one other person from outside their household for a coffee, drink or picnic without having to exercise from 8 March under the PM’s roadmap.
By the end of next month two households, or up to six people, will be able to meet outdoors for the first time in 2021.
From 29 March, outdoor facilities such as tennis courts and local football pitches will reopen, paving the way for the return of organised adult and children’s sport.
It is understood that the PM’s “stay at home” orders will also be lifted on this date.
Under current rules, people are only allowed to leave their houses for a select few reasons including essential shopping, work and exercise.
Non-essential shops
Ministers will likely want to assess the impact of returning students to the classroom and lifting outdoor restrictions before lifting any other significant lockdown measures.
Johnson will outline four new tests that will determine when and if other parts of the economy can restart alongside his roadmap announcement this afternoon.
The four tests will include the continued success of the vaccine programme and evidence that jabs are reducing hospital admissions and deaths.
Overall infection rates will also have to be low enough not to risk a surge in hospital admissions from further lifting of restrictions, while ministers will keep a keen eye on the threat of new “variants of concern”.
However, it is likely that the reopening of non-essential retail will likely come next in the government’s timeline for exiting lockdown.
Under the current rules, only essential shops such as supermarkets, newsagents and pet stores are allowed to remain open.
However, ministers are extremely concerned about the economic consequences of extending lockdown longer than is absolutely necessary, after figures revealed last week showed the UK economy contracted a record 9.9 per cent in 2020.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak will unveil this year’s spring Budget on 3 March.
Specific financial support packages revealed on that date will provide a good indication of how long ministers expect current lockdown measures to last for different sectors.
The retail sector has had a rough ride during the pandemic, with a raft of household names, including Topshop-owner Arcadia, Debenhams, Laura Ashley, Edinburgh Woollen Mill and Cath Kidston. entering administration over the past few months.
But stores will likely spring back to normal once restrictions are lifted. Non-essential shops will likely follow the lead of supermarkets and introduce stricter rules surrounding face coverings and social distancing once they reopen.
Hospitality
Leading figures in the hospitality industry have warned that the sector remains most vulnerable to collapse under lockdown restrictions, with venues now shuttered on-and-off for almost a year.
Reports have speculated various different dates for the reopening of pubs, restaurants and cafes, though no concrete dates have received any form of confirmation from the government.
Ministers have insisted they need to consider infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths before giving the green light for hospitality venues to roll up the shutters.
Plans said to be under consideration include allowing pubs to reopen with a temporary “booze ban”. Scientists are said to be concerned a return to serving alcohol after months of closure would see punters abandon social distancing.
However, industry figures have warned a return to restrictions including the 10pm curfew and “substantial meals” would deal a hammer blow to an industry already on its knees.
Tim Martin, chairman of pub chain Wetherspoons, last week called for pubs to be reopened at the same time as non-essential shops, warning that excessive restrictions would spell “economic mayhem” for the sector.
The Prime Minister has rubbished claims the government is considering the introduction of vaccine passports to allow the hospitality sector to reopen.
However, he said rapid Covid tests would allow parts of the economy that “have been hard to nail down” to reopen, including nightclubs and theatres.