The Trump train hits Pennsylvania: A day in the key US election swing state
Billy Joel’s 1982 song Allentown tells the tale of disaffected steel industry cities in North East Pennsylvania that were ravaged by deindunstrialisation and globalisation. Joel talks about blue collar workers from places like Allentown and Bethlehem that were left unemployed and pushed to the fringe of American culture in exchange for cheaper labour and products.
In 2016, these same areas formed the heart of Trump country. Northampton County, which includes Bethlehem, was one of several Pennsylvanian counties to switch from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016. Neighbouring Lehigh County, which includes Allentown, also saw a substantial swing to the Republicans after being solidly Democrat in 2012. It was the left behind working class voters of the so-called Slate Belt that swung behind Trump’s populist message to help deliver him the state of Pennsylvania and the White House four years ago.
Pennsylvania once again looms large as one of the most important battlegrounds in 2020, with both candidates touring the state yesterday a week out from polling day. The President’s rally at Allentown’s regional airport was a sea of Trump merchandise, American flags and flannel. Trump-themed country and western music was also a fixture on the walk to the airport, with one car blasting a tune that warned “the Trump train was-a-coming”.
Indeed it was.
The President’s motorcade blew into town just after 11am and was greeted by chants of “four more years” at the entrance to the rally. One proud patriot also chimed in unironically with: “Why not 24 more years?!” Trump’s arrival to the stage was a rockstar welcome as he walked on to rapturous applause and chants of “USA” that rippled across the crowd.
Trump went to back to basics as he hit on the themes which cut through to Pennsylvania’s rural voters in 2016. He blasted Biden for being a “diehard globalist” who shut down the country’s steel industry, claimed the former Vice President would gut Pennsylvania’s booming fracking sector (more on this later) and said the Democrats would plunge the US into a “depression the likes of which we have never seen in this country”. He also said his famous border wall will be “built very soon”, that China had been tamed under his Presidency and that he had kept radical islamists out of the country. His 2016 pitch as the anti-politician and working class hero was back in full force throughout the 80-minute speech.
“If I don’t sound like a typical Washington politician, it’s because I’m not a politician,” Trump said.
“I don’t always play by the rules of the Washington establishment, it’s because I was elected to fight for you harder than anyone ever before.”
This sentiment hit home with voters in the state’s north east and western counties in 2016 and converted them into Trumpers. Those at the rally said their faith in the President had not wavered.
Joe Filosetta from Bethlehem said Trump had “done everything he said he would and he speaks my language”.
“He’s not afraid to make enemies and that’s why he has so many supporters…he puts the American workers, American families, American people first and foreign policy second,” he said.
Kaz Kotlow, a retired army veteran, said he took “a leap” by voting for Trump in 2016, but was now a lifetime convert.
“I was frustrated by the lack of progress that the regular Republican party was making, but now for sure he’s definitely demonstrated that he means what he says,” he said.
“He’s done more than Washington ever has for veterans in the last four years.”
Tony Sebelin, a forklift operator, said he found out about the rally at 6am that morning during his shift at Nestle’s local packing factory.
“I went into work at 7pm last night, I got out at 7am this morning and said ‘I’m going to that rally’, with my wife who loves Donald Trump as well,” he said.
“I never voted before in my life and 2016 was the first time I registered to vote – I voted for him in the [Republican] primary and I will vote for him, and my wife will vote for him, on 3 November in the General Election.
“I think he’s truthful, I do, the media doesn’t cover a lot of the good things he does.”
Sebelino and his wife are the exact people who carried Trump to victory in 2016, after he was able to activate working class Americans who had never voted before or who had not voted for many years.
However, polls have Trump on course for a crushing defeat in Pennsylvania and nationwide this time around. The latest survey from polling guru Scott Rasmussen showed the President trailed Biden by five points in Pennsylvania. Rasmussen told City A.M. that small swings in voter turnout will have enormous implications for the final result.
“In 2016, [Trump] won Pennsylvania because the turnout in the rural counties in the western part of the state were very high relative to other years and much more supportive of the Republicans than the counties have been before,” he said.
“The question is whether those counties will turn out and once again be enough to offset what’s happening in Philadelphia, where Joe Biden will wrap up big numbers.”
Local Northampton County Democrats are hoping the President’s inability to get control of Covid-19 will rally locals to vote for Biden and turn the county blue again.
Matthew Munsey, chair of the Democrats’ Northampton County branch, said his figures indicated 48,000 mail-in ballots had been returned already and it is estimated that 71 per cent of these are for Biden.
Hilary Clinton had just 66,272 votes from the county in 2016.
“There were a large number of people who just didn’t think it was that important last time, so we’re definitely seeing people voting by mail who didn’t vote for Hillary,” Munsey said.
“There’s a different feel to it around here this time – there are a lot more Democrat signs around and a lot more people holding their own car rallies.”
However, the mood around Bethlehem yesterday afternoon was decidedly pro-Trump. Those who voted for him in 2016 said they were sticking by the President, because of the job he had done in managing the economy during his term. When asked if they were concerned around his handling of Covid-19, the US has had 220,000 fatalities and one of the highest per capita death rates in the world, it was unanimous – they just didn’t blame Trump for an unprecedented health crisis.
Joe Iervolino, a retired aerospace engineer from Bethlehem, said the flourishment of the Pensylvania’s fracking industry under Trump was a key factor for him.
“It’s an energy driven state and he’s been good with energy,” Iervolino said.
“We’re an energy independent country now and no longer at the whims of the oil cartels.”
The US is now the world’s largest oil producer thanks to fracking, with the industry employing tens of thousands of people in rural Pennsylvania. Trump accused Biden at his rally of wanting to shut down the sector, saying he would “abolish the entire US oil industry”.
“That means no fracking, no jobs, no energy for Pennsylvania,” the President said.
At the last debate, Biden said he wanted to ease the country off fossil fuels, however it is over a long timeframe and he has no plans to shut down the fracking industry any time soon. However, Rasmussen said Biden’s comments will likely cause concern among voters in energy producing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas.
“I’m sure people in western Pennsylvania have seen some of the clips of Joe Biden stumbling on the fracking topic, the topic he’s stumbled on before,” he said.
“That’s one of those things that’s not going to reshape the race, but if it has a slight impact on turnout in Pennsylvania it could be the difference on electoral votes.”
Another potential ray of light for Trump is that the polls may not reflect a large voter base that is too shy to say they are going to back the President. Multiple people at the rally said they were reluctant to tell people about their support for Trump through fears it would trigger aggression from Democrats.
Vangelica Perillo, an Albanian immigrant, said: “Trump has my husband, he has all my neighbours, he has all of mainstream Pennsylvania.
“People are just scared to say, because they put the flag out and the next morning you don’t see it in front any more.”
If Trump is going to do the improbable for a second time it is these silent voters that will have to carry him to four more years in the White House.